Statistical approaches to the surveillance of infectious diseases for veterinary public health

This technical report covers the aspect of using statistical methodology for the monitoring of routinely collected surveillance data in veterinary public health. An account of the Farrington algorithm and Poisson cumulative sum schemes for the detection of aberrations is given with special attention devoted to the occurrence of seasonality and spatial aggregation of the time series. Modelling approaches for retrospective analysis of surveillance counts are described. To illustrate the applicability of the methodology in veterinary public health, data from the surveillance of rabies among fox in Hesse, Germany, are analysed

Analyzing veterinary surveillance data: Approaches to model the relationship between disease incidence and cattle trade

Two approaches to the analysis of registry data for bovine diseases with regard to the relationship between disease incidence and cattle trade are proposed. Firstly, a parameter-driven spatio-temporal disease mapping model formulated in a hierarchical Bayesian framework is used. Various cattle movement parameters, e.g. the number and proportion of in-movements from infected regions, can be included as potential covariates. Within this context problems of such an endogenous covariate are discussed. Since a purely parameter-driven approach is often not adequate to depict local epidemics, a so-called observationdriven infectious disease model is proposed as a second possibility. It includes an autoregressive part for counts in the region of interest in the past. Additionally, the sum of previous cases in other regions weighted by cattle movements is added to assess the spread of the disease by trading. Both models are applied to cases of Coxiellosis in Switzerland, 2005 to 2009

Heterogeneity in vaccination coverage explains the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in German surveillance data

The objective of this study was to characterize empirically the association between vaccination coverage and the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in Germany. In order to achieve this we analysed data routinely collected by the Robert Koch Institute, which comprise the weekly number of reported measles cases at all ages as well as estimates of vaccination coverage at the average age of entry into the school system. Coverage levels within each federal state of Germany are incorporated into a multivariate time-series model for infectious disease counts, which captures occasional outbreaks by means of an autoregressive component. The observed incidence pattern of measles for all ages is best described by using the log proportion of unvaccinated school starters in the autoregressive component of the mode

weSPOT: a cloud-based approach for personal and social inquiry

Scientific inquiry is at the core of the curricula of schools and universities across Europe. weSPOT is a new European initiative proposing a cloud-based approach for personal and social inquiry. weSPOT aims at enabling students to create their mashups out of cloud-based tools in order to perform scientific investigations. Students will also be able to share their inquiry accomplishments in social networks and receive feedback from the learning environment and their peers

Topotactic-hydrogen forms chains in ABABO2_2 nickelate superconductors

Despite enormous experimental and theoretical efforts, obtaining generally accepted conclusions regarding the intrinsic magnetic and electronic properties of superconducting nickelates remains exceptionally challenging. Experiments show a significant degree of uncertainty, indicating hidden factors in the synthesized films, which call for further investigations. One of those "hidden factors" is the possibility of intercalating hydrogen during the chemical reduction process from Nd(La)NiO$_3$ to Nd(La)NiO$_2$ using CaH$_2$. While hydrogen has been detected in experimental samples, not much is known about its distribution through the crystal and its influence on the electronic environment. Here, we show the tendency toward the formation of one-dimensional hydrogen chains in infinite-layers LaNiO$_2$ superconductors using density-functional theory (DFT) supplemented by dynamical mean-field theory (DMFT). The formation of such hydrogen chains induces a coexistence of different oxidation states of Ni and competing magnetic phases, and possibly explains the recently observed charge order states in nickelate superconductors. Furthermore, it contributes to the difficulty of synthesizing homogeneous nickelates and determining their ground states. The smoking gun to detect excess hydrogen in nickelates are flat phonon modes, which are infrared active and quite insensitive to the exact arrangement of the H atoms.Comment: 19 pages, 13 figures, under PRB revie

weSPOT: A personal and social approach to inquiry-based learning

weSPOT is a new European initiative proposing a novel approach for personal and social inquiry-based learning in secondary and higher education. weSPOT aims at enabling students to create their mash-ups out of cloud based tools and services in order to perform scientific investigations. Students will also be able to share their inquiry accomplishments in social networks and receive feedback from the learning environment and their peers. This paper presents the research framework of the weSPOT project, as well as the initial inquiry-based learning scenarios that will be piloted by the project in real-life educational settings

Unconventional superconductivity without doping: infinite-layer nickelates under pressure

High-temperature unconventional superconductivity quite generically emerges from doping a strongly correlated parent compound, often (close to) an antiferromagnetic insulator. The recently developed dynamical vertex approximation is a state-of-the-art technique that has quantitatively predicted the superconducting dome of nickelates. Here, we apply it to study the effect of pressure in the infinite-layer nickelate Sr$_x$Pr$_ {1-x}$NiO$_2$. We reproduce the increase of the critical temperature ($T_c$) under pressure found in experiment up to 12 GPa. According to our results, $T_c$ can be further increased with higher pressures. Even without Sr-doping the parent compound, PrNiO$_2$, will become a high-temperature superconductor thanks to a strongly enhanced self-doping of the \nidxsqysq{} orbital under pressure. With a maximal \Tc{} of 100\,K around 100\,GPa, nickelate superconductors can reach that of the best cuprates.Comment: Main text: 6 pages, 4 figures. Supplementary information: 18 pages, 16 figure

The Relative Humidity in an Isentropic Advection–Condensation Model: Limited Poleward Influence and Properties of Subtropical Minima

An idealized model of advection and condensation of water vapor is considered as a representation of processes influencing the humidity distribution along isentropic surfaces in the free troposphere. Results are presented for how the mean relative humidity distribution varies in response to changes in the distribution of saturation specific humidity and in the amplitude of a tropical moisture source. Changes in the tropical moisture source are found to have little effect on the relative humidity poleward of the subtropical minima, suggesting a lack of poleward influence despite much greater water vapor concentrations at lower latitudes. The subtropical minima in relative humidity are found to be located just equatorward of the inflection points of the saturation specific humidity profile along the isentropic surface. The degree of mean subsaturation is found to vary with the magnitude of the meridional gradient of saturation specific humidity when other parameters are held fixed. The atmospheric relevance of these results is investigated by comparison with the positions of the relative humidity minima in reanalysis data and by examining poleward influence of relative humidity in simulations with an idealized general circulation model. It is suggested that the limited poleward influence of relative humidity may constrain the propagation of errors in simulated humidity fields

The Third wave in globalization theory

This essay examines a proposition made in the literature that there are three waves in globalization theory—the globalist, skeptical, and postskeptical or transformational waves—and argues that this division requires a new look. The essay is a critique of the third of these waves and its relationship with the second wave. Contributors to the third wave not only defend the idea of globalization from criticism by the skeptics but also try to construct a more complex and qualified theory of globalization than provided by first-wave accounts. The argument made here is that third-wave authors come to conclusions that try to defend globalization yet include qualifications that in practice reaffirm skeptical claims. This feature of the literature has been overlooked in debates and the aim of this essay is to revisit the literature and identify as well as discuss this problem. Such a presentation has political implications. Third wavers propose globalist cosmopolitan democracy when the substance of their arguments does more in practice to bolster the skeptical view of politics based on inequality and conflict, nation-states and regional blocs, and alliances of common interest or ideology rather than cosmopolitan global structures